Campaign quick-fire
Time not published
“There’s one plan, two votes.”
Correcting the record
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Verdicts assess specific factual claims only. They do not rate parties, ideologies or political preferences.
11:07 AM NZST12 hours ago
'Here to win': Te Pāti Māori launches election campaign in Kaiti NZ Herald
7:14 AM NZST16 hours ago
Te Pati Māori game changer could win 2026 Election thedailyblog.co.nz
6:07 AM NZST17 hours ago
Te Pāti Māori’s election pitch: candidate vote only The Spinoff
4:21 PM NZST1 day ago
Te Pāti Māori reveals election strategy as campaign launches in Gisborne 1News
7:20 AM NZST1 day ago
OPINION: Billy Brown spent the weekend trying to manufacture a gotcha moment over thisquality's reporting on Marsden Point Oil Refinery. The New Zealand First candidate shared a string of posts apparently designed to convince his followers that Labour “closed” the Marsden Point refinery and anyone challenging that version of events was somehow denying reality.
We are not buying the political spin behind Brown's public messaging. And, it is exactly why the Fourth Estate hides in the shadows waiting to hold politicians accountable for the twisted words that come out of their gobs.
There is a legitimate political argument over whether the former Labour Government should have intervened to keep the refinery operating. Labour can be criticised for failing to step in, for accepting the commercial direction taken by Refining NZ, and for whether enough was done to protect New Zealand’s long-term fuel security.
That decision came through Refining NZ, its board and shareholders as the company moved from refining crude oil to operating an import terminal.
Repeating a politically convenient version of events does not transfer that commercial decision into the Beehive and Brown appears determined to blur that distinction because the simpler slogan is more useful politically.
“Labour closed Marsden Point” fits neatly into a conservative narrative that every major economic problem can be pinned on Jacinda Ardern’s Government, regardless of who actually made the decision.
It is effective politics precisely because it strips away complexity. It is also why journalists should challenge it.
There is an increasingly familiar pattern in New Zealand politics where politicians, especially from within the orbit of New Zealand First, throw out an accusation on social media then watch their supporters repeat it hundreds of times.
That cannot become the standard and it has to be identified and called out.
Brown is entitled to argue Labour should have fought harder to retain refining capability. He is entitled to attack Labour’s energy policy, climate policy or approach to strategic infrastructure. New Zealand First is entitled to campaign on reopening Marsden Point and making fuel security a national priority.
What politicians are not entitled to is their own version of the historical record.
This is where the political right often becomes particularly irritated with scrutiny. Calling out a misleading claim is quickly reframed as media bias, journalistic activism, establishment protection or some imagined conspiracy to defend Labour.
We have no interest in protecting Labour and we are in control of what we publish. The public gets to decide who is right from wrong.
Labour politicians should be challenged when they mislead the public too. So should National, ACT, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and New Zealand First. Accountability does not become partisan simply because the politician being challenged dislikes the answer.
Brown’s posting spree showed how aggressively political narratives can be defended once they become useful campaign material. If he has evidence showing the Labour Cabinet ordered Refining NZ to shut Marsden Point, he should publish it.
Until then, we will continue doing exactly what independent media should do and that is separating political rhetoric from the documented record and calling out falsehoods wherever they come from.
Politicians can complain about that as loudly as they like.
The facts do not owe them loyalty.
9:17 AM NZST2 days ago
OPINION: There comes a point when a political talking point has been disproved so thoroughly that continuing to repeat it becomes impossible to defend as simple political spin. New Zealand First’s Rotorua candidate Billy Brown has reached that point with Marsden Point.
Brown has claimed Labour “approved shutting it down and called it progress towards net zero” a statement he has published publicly while campaigning for Parliament. The claim has appeared on his social media, including LinkedIn, where it remains attached to an authorised campaign message.
There is just one major problem. The documented record does not support it and thisquality disproved the misinformation he continues to spread to his followers.
Marsden Point was not Labour’s refinery to close. The Treasury confirmed in April that the refinery was not owned or operated by the Government and that the Crown held no shares in it at or around the time of closure.
Refining NZ announced in July 2021 that converting Marsden Point into an import terminal and ending refining operations required approval from its shareholders. The company cited weak refining margins, international oversupply, competitiveness problems and its customers’ preference for an import model among the reasons behind the proposal.
Shareholders approved the conversion on August 6, 2021. Refining NZ later reported that 99 percent of votes supported it.
After agreements were reached with bp, Mobil and Z Energy, the company’s board made the final investment decision to proceed.
Labour can absolutely be attacked for failing to intervene. Ministers can be accused of making the wrong call on fuel security, abandoning domestic refining capacity or refusing to spend public money to keep Marsden Point operating. Government documents themselves dealt with Refining NZ’s planned closure and considered the consequences of New Zealand losing domestic refining.
That argument is legitimate.
Pretending Labour actually approved the company's closure is not.
The net-zero claim is similarly misleading. Refining NZ itself promoted the conversion as delivering major reductions in its direct carbon emissions and allowing the company to participate in New Zealand’s decarbonising energy market. Those claims came from the company selling shareholders on its proposed future business model.
Brown is listed by New Zealand First as its Rotorua candidate. Someone seeking a seat in Parliament should be able to distinguish between a Government refusing to rescue a private company and a Government approving that company’s decision.
The same challenge applies to everyone else still pushing the 'Marsden Point myth' because it makes a convenient attack line.
The shareholders voted and the board made the final decision. The Crown did not own the refinery.
Brown can keep repeating the big lie, but repetition will never turn it into history.
6:08 PM NZST5 days ago
OPINION: Labour has every reason to keep its focus on winning as much support as possible before the election. The question is what Labour is actually trying to achieve with that strategy. test test one two three.
Chris Hipkins is trying to present Labour as the only major party capable of leading an alternative government, and there is political logic in refusing to spend the campaign talking up smaller parties that could ultimately compete for the same voters.
If the objective is to strengthen Labour’s party vote, keeping potential coalition arrangements at arm’s length makes sense. Every time Labour publicly promotes common ground with another party, it risks giving voters permission to look elsewhere while assuming Labour will still lead the government.
That could be especially important in a tight election where a few percentage points may determine which party has the strongest mandate to lead.
There is a reasonable argument that coalition negotiations should reflect the Parliament New Zealanders actually elect, rather than political arrangements drawn up before anyone has voted.
MMP can produce unexpected results. Parties rise, fall and sometimes disappear from Parliament altogether. Locking in detailed commitments too early can leave a major party boxed into positions that no longer reflect the numbers after election day.
Giving Labour room to negotiate is not a sign of weakness or secrecy but the strategy still needs a visible political purpose.
Labour cannot leave voters wondering whether its position is deliberate flexibility, an attempt to protect its vote, or uncertainty about how it would deal with parties on the left. If the objective is to build the strongest possible Labour-led government, Hipkins should say that clearly and firmly.
There is a strong political case for it.
A larger Labour vote would give the party greater control over any future governing arrangement and it would reduce the influence smaller parties could demand during negotiations and give Hipkins more authority over the direction of a government that he leads.
Instead of allowing the coalition debate to become a question about who Labour may or may not need, the party could frame the election around a much simpler proposition that the stronger Labour performs, the stronger its hand will be after election night. That message would fit comfortably with the wider campaign.
If the party believes New Zealand needs stable leadership, a stronger Labour vote is the most direct way of delivering it.
That is where the current ambiguity could become a strength, but only if voters understand the strategy behind it.
If the message is that New Zealanders should give Labour the strongest possible mandate and leave coalition negotiations until the country has spoken, that is a defensible position. But Labour should own it.
If that is the strategy, the party should say so.
4:54 PM NZST7 days ago
Angee Nicholas faces key battle for National's Pacific representation Pacific Media Network
Campaign quick-fire
Time not published
“There’s one plan, two votes.”
Latest polling
Poll: Big two parties at 30-year low, Opportunity nears 5% threshold
Latest published party-vote snapshot: National 29%, NZ First 11%, ACT 6%, Labour 5%, Opportunity 4.6%, Green 2%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Check the linked poll report for fieldwork dates, sample size and methodology.
Luxon confronts caucus discontent after hitting lowest poll result as leader
Latest published party-vote snapshot: Labour 37%, National 4%. Check the linked poll report for fieldwork dates, sample size and methodology.
1News Verian poll · August 2026
The August 1News Verian snapshot was conducted 8–11 August with 847 respondents and a maximum margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. It is kept separate so readers can compare pollsters rather than blend methodologies.
Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll · August 2026
August Curia snapshot, retained alongside other pollsters rather than blended into a single synthetic poll.
Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll · July 2026
July Curia snapshot retained immediately before the August movement in the same polling series.
RNZ-Reid Research poll · July 2026
July Reid Research snapshot retained as a separate series before the later July Curia and August polls.
Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Historical polling is kept in the separate polling-history card. Compare fieldwork dates, sample sizes, methodology and margins of error before drawing conclusions.
Live regional vote map
Click a region to highlight it and view the latest official vote picture.
Northland
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Auckland
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Waikato
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Bay of Plenty
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Gisborne
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Hawke’s Bay
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Taranaki
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Manawatū-Whanganui
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Wellington
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Nelson-Tasman
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
West Coast
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Marlborough
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Canterbury
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Otago
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
Southland
No Electoral Commission result data has been returned for this region yet.
NZ enrolment snapshot: 3,609,435 enrolled · 304,725 Māori roll · 3,609,409 local-council roll total.
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