Video: Election26
LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER Labour · 34 projected seats Calculated from the latest reviewed party-vote poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 34 Labour · seat 2 of 34 Labour · seat 3 of 34 Labour · seat 4 of 34 Labour · seat 5 of 34 Labour · seat 6 of 34 Labour · seat 7 of 34 Labour · seat 8 of 34 Labour · seat 9 of 34 Labour · seat 10 of 34 Labour · seat 11 of 34 Labour · seat 12 of 34 Labour · seat 13 of 34 Labour · seat 14 of 34 Labour · seat 15 of 34 Labour · seat 16 of 34 Labour · seat 17 of 34 Labour · seat 18 of 34 Labour · seat 19 of 34 Labour · seat 20 of 34 Labour · seat 21 of 34 Labour · seat 22 of 34 Labour · seat 23 of 34 Labour · seat 24 of 34 Labour · seat 25 of 34 Labour · seat 26 of 34 Labour · seat 27 of 34 Labour · seat 28 of 34 Labour · seat 29 of 34 Labour · seat 30 of 34 Labour · seat 31 of 34 Labour · seat 32 of 34 Labour · seat 33 of 34 Labour · seat 34 of 34 Green · seat 1 of 17 Green · seat 2 of 17 Green · seat 3 of 17 Green · seat 4 of 17 Green · seat 5 of 17 Green · seat 6 of 17 Green · seat 7 of 17 Green · seat 8 of 17 Green · seat 9 of 17 Green · seat 10 of 17 Green · seat 11 of 17 Green · seat 12 of 17 Green · seat 13 of 17 Green · seat 14 of 17 Green · seat 15 of 17 Green · seat 16 of 17 Green · seat 17 of 17 Te Pāti Māori · seat 1 of 2 Te Pāti Māori · seat 2 of 2 Opportunity · seat 1 of 7 Opportunity · seat 2 of 7 Opportunity · seat 3 of 7 Opportunity · seat 4 of 7 Opportunity · seat 5 of 7 Opportunity · seat 6 of 7 Opportunity · seat 7 of 7 New Zealand First · seat 1 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 2 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 3 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 4 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 5 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 6 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 7 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 8 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 9 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 10 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 11 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 12 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 13 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 14 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 15 of 16 New Zealand First · seat 16 of 16 ACT · seat 1 of 11 ACT · seat 2 of 11 ACT · seat 3 of 11 ACT · seat 4 of 11 ACT · seat 5 of 11 ACT · seat 6 of 11 ACT · seat 7 of 11 ACT · seat 8 of 11 ACT · seat 9 of 11 ACT · seat 10 of 11 ACT · seat 11 of 11 National · seat 1 of 33 National · seat 2 of 33 National · seat 3 of 33 National · seat 4 of 33 National · seat 5 of 33 National · seat 6 of 33 National · seat 7 of 33 National · seat 8 of 33 National · seat 9 of 33 National · seat 10 of 33 National · seat 11 of 33 National · seat 12 of 33 National · seat 13 of 33 National · seat 14 of 33 National · seat 15 of 33 National · seat 16 of 33 National · seat 17 of 33 National · seat 18 of 33 National · seat 19 of 33 National · seat 20 of 33 National · seat 21 of 33 National · seat 22 of 33 National · seat 23 of 33 National · seat 24 of 33 National · seat 25 of 33 National · seat 26 of 33 National · seat 27 of 33 National · seat 28 of 33 National · seat 29 of 33 National · seat 30 of 33 National · seat 31 of 33 National · seat 32 of 33 National · seat 33 of 33
Polling seat estimateLabour has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Modified Sainte-Laguë estimate · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: The Post/Freshwater Strategy · 15 Sep 2026. No compatible source seat projection was available for these settings, so seats are estimated with modified Sainte-Laguë. Threshold: 5%. Qualified below threshold: Te Pāti Māori (electorate-gateway assumption). Majority: 61 seats.
LATEST PREFERRED PM POLLING

Preferred Prime Minister

Latest preferred Prime Minister result, with a profile snapshot of each leading political figure.

15 SEP 2026
PUBLISHED POLLLatest available preferred-PM figure for each leader. Hipkins and Luxon are from The Post/Freshwater Strategy; other leaders use the newest source-verified poll that reported them.
35%

Christopher Luxon

Prime Minister · National leader

The Post/Freshwater Strategy · 15 Sep
45%preferred PM

Chris Hipkins

Leader of the Opposition · Labour leader

The Post/Freshwater Strategy · 15 Sep
10.7%

Winston Peters

New Zealand First leader

Taxpayers' Union-Curia · 7 Sep
7%

Chlöe Swarbrick

Green Party co-leader

Taxpayers' Union-Curia · 7 Sep
7.8%

David Seymour

Deputy Prime Minister · ACT leader

Taxpayers' Union-Curia · 7 Sep
HISTORICAL TREND

Preferred PM polling, 2024–2026

LuxonHipkinsPetersSwarbrickSeymour
0%10%20%30%40%50%Feb 2024Jun 2024Oct 2024Feb 2025May 2025Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 202612 Aug7 Sep15 Sep35%45%10.7%7%7.8%

The long-run line uses 1News-Verian through August 2026, then adds the latest source-verified RNZ-Reid, Curia and The Post/Freshwater preferred-PM results. Pollsters use different methods, so cross-pollster changes should be read as snapshots rather than a single continuous series.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy + latest published polls. Latest available preferred-PM figure for each leader. Hipkins and Luxon are from The Post/Freshwater Strategy; other leaders use the newest source-verified poll that reported them. Historical chart identifies the latest mixed-pollster points and expands automatically to keep every percentage visible. Portrait image credits are marked with an asterisk.
WAITING

Official results

Waiting for Electoral Commission counting data. Party lines stay grey until the count starts.

Labour—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
National—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Green—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
New Zealand First—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
ACT—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Opportunity—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Te Pāti Māori—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Election26 · NEW ZEALAND

Live regional vote map

Click a region to see current enrolment, then live counted votes as results arrive.

3,636,524 enrolled nationally89.8% estimated enrolment311,522 Māori roll3,636,498 local-council roll totalStats 31 August 2026
Click a region Regions tint to the current leading party; orange pulse means the top two are within 2.5 pointsVotes Official electorate party-vote totals are grouped by thisquality regionStatus Live
NorthlandAucklandWaikatoBay of PlentyGisborneHawke’s BayTaranakiManawatū-WhanganuiWellingtonNelson-TasmanWest CoastMarlboroughCanterburyOtagoSouthland
Click a region · Drag to move · Use controls to zoom
REGIONAL COVERAGE

Wellington

431,411 people are enrolled in this region across 7 general electorates.

Shown until official live results are available. Electoral Commission monthly enrolment statistics · 31 August 2026.

Before counting, this panel shows regional enrolment. It switches automatically to live regional results as official figures arrive.

Vote source: Electoral Commission. Enrolment source: Electoral Commission monthly enrolment statistics. Regional vote groupings and map presentation are thisquality aggregations. The Electoral Commission results service has not returned result data yet.
RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

The Post/Freshwater Strategy

Historic major party slump deepens: Labour edges National in new poll

Labour28%
National27%
Green14%
New Zealand First13%
ACT9%
Opportunity6%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour highest in this poll1-point gap

The Post/Freshwater Strategy party vote: Labour 28%, National 27%, Green 14%, New Zealand First 13%, ACT 9%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Chris Hipkins led Christopher Luxon 45% to 35% as preferred prime minister.

PARTY VOTE

Taxpayers' Union-Curia

Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: September 2026

Labour25.9%
National29%
Green13.9%
New Zealand First8.4%
ACT10.5%
Opportunity4.5%
Te Pāti Māori2%
National highest in this poll3.1-point gap

Taxpayers’ Union-Curia party vote: National 29.0%, Labour 25.9%, Green 13.9%, ACT 10.5%, New Zealand First 8.4%, Opportunity 4.5%, Te Pāti Māori 2.0%. Published House projection: National 39, Labour 35, Green 18, ACT 14, New Zealand First 11, Te Pāti Māori 3, Opportunity…

PARTY VOTE

Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: August 2026

Labour24%
National31%
Green15.5%
New Zealand First7.5%
ACT10.5%
Opportunity9.5%
Te Pāti Māori1.5%
National highest in this poll7-point gap

Roy Morgan party vote: National 31%, Labour 24%, Green 15.5%, ACT 10.5%, Opportunity 9.5%, New Zealand First 7.5%, Te Pāti Māori 1.5%. Fieldwork ran 27 July–23 August among 858 electors.

PARTY VOTE

RNZ-Reid Research

National’s pain is no gain for Labour in latest RNZ-Reid Research poll

Labour32.2%
National29.1%
Green10.2%
New Zealand First11.9%
ACT7.7%
Opportunity5.3%
Te Pāti Māori3%
Labour highest in this poll3.1-point gap

RNZ-Reid Research party vote: Labour 32.2%, National 29.1%, New Zealand First 11.9%, Green 10.2%, ACT 7.7%, Opportunity 5.3%, Te Pāti Māori 3.0%.

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

Poll: Opportunity Party surges as NZ First slides amid Luxon saga

Labour30%
National29%
Green12%
New Zealand First8%
ACT9%
Opportunity8%
Te Pāti Māori1%
Labour highest in this poll1-point gap

1News Verian party vote: Labour 30%, National 29%, Green 12%, ACT 9%, New Zealand First 8%, Opportunity 8%, Te Pāti Māori 1%.

PARTY VOTE

Taxpayers' Union-Curia

Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: August 2026

Labour27.8%
National31%
Green10.1%
New Zealand First9.1%
ACT7.3%
Opportunity6.1%
Te Pāti Māori1.5%
National highest in this poll3.2-point gap

Taxpayers' Union-Curia party vote: National 31%, Labour 27.8%, Green 10.1%, New Zealand First 9.1%, ACT 7.3%, Opportunity 6.1%, Te Pāti Māori 1.5%.

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.

Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,325,002
Māori roll311,522
Total enrolled3,636,524
Enrolled89.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll311,522

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

*thisquality is an independent news and information service operated by Quiet Pact Network Limited and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or acting on behalf of the New Zealand Government, the Electoral Commission, Parliament, any political party, candidate, campaign, lobby group or other electoral authority. Election26 coverage, including results, electorate information, polling, candidate information, maps, timelines, alerts and related material, is compiled from official statements, publicly available data and other verified reporting for general information only. Information may be delayed, incomplete, corrected or changed without notice and should not be relied upon as official electoral, legal or voting advice. Election results, vote counts, electorate boundaries, candidate details and other election information may change as official counting, recounts, declarations or corrections occur. Maps and graphics are illustrative and must not be treated as authoritative representations of electorate boundaries, polling places, voting eligibility or official results. Alerts and live updates are provided as a convenience and are not guaranteed to be immediate, continuous, complete or successfully delivered. Readers should check the latest official information from the New Zealand Electoral Commission and other relevant authorities before making decisions about enrolment, voting, eligibility, polling places, election dates, deadlines or other electoral matters. Nothing published by thisquality should be interpreted as an endorsement of, opposition to, or instruction to vote for any political party, candidate or electoral option. Although reasonable care is taken in preparing Election26 coverage, Quiet Pact Network Limited does not guarantee that any content is complete, accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose and, to the fullest extent permitted by New Zealand law, excludes liability for any loss, damage, cost or consequence arising from access to or reliance on this page. Nothing in this disclaimer excludes or limits any right, remedy or liability that cannot lawfully be excluded or limited.

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