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LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER Labour · 36 projected seats Calculated from the latest reviewed party-vote poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 36 Labour · seat 2 of 36 Labour · seat 3 of 36 Labour · seat 4 of 36 Labour · seat 5 of 36 Labour · seat 6 of 36 Labour · seat 7 of 36 Labour · seat 8 of 36 Labour · seat 9 of 36 Labour · seat 10 of 36 Labour · seat 11 of 36 Labour · seat 12 of 36 Labour · seat 13 of 36 Labour · seat 14 of 36 Labour · seat 15 of 36 Labour · seat 16 of 36 Labour · seat 17 of 36 Labour · seat 18 of 36 Labour · seat 19 of 36 Labour · seat 20 of 36 Labour · seat 21 of 36 Labour · seat 22 of 36 Labour · seat 23 of 36 Labour · seat 24 of 36 Labour · seat 25 of 36 Labour · seat 26 of 36 Labour · seat 27 of 36 Labour · seat 28 of 36 Labour · seat 29 of 36 Labour · seat 30 of 36 Labour · seat 31 of 36 Labour · seat 32 of 36 Labour · seat 33 of 36 Labour · seat 34 of 36 Labour · seat 35 of 36 Labour · seat 36 of 36 Green · seat 1 of 17 Green · seat 2 of 17 Green · seat 3 of 17 Green · seat 4 of 17 Green · seat 5 of 17 Green · seat 6 of 17 Green · seat 7 of 17 Green · seat 8 of 17 Green · seat 9 of 17 Green · seat 10 of 17 Green · seat 11 of 17 Green · seat 12 of 17 Green · seat 13 of 17 Green · seat 14 of 17 Green · seat 15 of 17 Green · seat 16 of 17 Green · seat 17 of 17 Te Pāti Māori · seat 1 of 2 Te Pāti Māori · seat 2 of 2 Opportunity · seat 1 of 6 Opportunity · seat 2 of 6 Opportunity · seat 3 of 6 Opportunity · seat 4 of 6 Opportunity · seat 5 of 6 Opportunity · seat 6 of 6 New Zealand First · seat 1 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 2 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 3 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 4 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 5 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 6 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 7 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 8 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 9 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 10 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 11 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 12 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 13 of 14 New Zealand First · seat 14 of 14 ACT · seat 1 of 11 ACT · seat 2 of 11 ACT · seat 3 of 11 ACT · seat 4 of 11 ACT · seat 5 of 11 ACT · seat 6 of 11 ACT · seat 7 of 11 ACT · seat 8 of 11 ACT · seat 9 of 11 ACT · seat 10 of 11 ACT · seat 11 of 11 National · seat 1 of 34 National · seat 2 of 34 National · seat 3 of 34 National · seat 4 of 34 National · seat 5 of 34 National · seat 6 of 34 National · seat 7 of 34 National · seat 8 of 34 National · seat 9 of 34 National · seat 10 of 34 National · seat 11 of 34 National · seat 12 of 34 National · seat 13 of 34 National · seat 14 of 34 National · seat 15 of 34 National · seat 16 of 34 National · seat 17 of 34 National · seat 18 of 34 National · seat 19 of 34 National · seat 20 of 34 National · seat 21 of 34 National · seat 22 of 34 National · seat 23 of 34 National · seat 24 of 34 National · seat 25 of 34 National · seat 26 of 34 National · seat 27 of 34 National · seat 28 of 34 National · seat 29 of 34 National · seat 30 of 34 National · seat 31 of 34 National · seat 32 of 34 National · seat 33 of 34 National · seat 34 of 34
Polling seat estimateLabour has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Modified Sainte-Laguë estimate · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: Taxpayers' Union-Curia · 20 Oct 2026. No compatible source seat projection was available for these settings, so seats are estimated with modified Sainte-Laguë. Threshold: 5%. Qualified below threshold: Te Pāti Māori (electorate-gateway assumption). Majority: 61 seats.

RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

Taxpayers' Union-Curia

New poll puts election on knife-edge with Opportunity close to 5% threshold

Labour29.7%
National27.6%
Green14.3%
New Zealand First11.8%
ACT9%
Opportunity5%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour highest in this poll2.1-point gap

Latest published party-vote snapshot: Labour 29.7%, National 27.6%, Green 14.3%, New Zealand First 11.8%, ACT 9%, Opportunity 5%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Check the linked poll report for fieldwork dates, sample size and methodology.

PARTY VOTE

RNZ-Reid Research

National’s path to power narrows in new poll

Labour30.8%
National25.9%
Green14.8%
New Zealand First10.6%
ACT9%
Opportunity5.5%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour highest in this poll4.9-point gap

RNZ-Reid Research party vote: Labour 30.8%, National 25.9%, Green 14.8%, New Zealand First 10.6%, ACT 9.0%, Opportunity 5.5%, Te Pāti Māori 2.0%. Published 120-seat projection: Labour 37, National 32, Green 18, New Zealand First 13, ACT 11, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori…

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.


Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,361,881
Māori roll315,719
Total enrolled3,677,600
Enrolled90.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll315,719

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

Investigation premieres today
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Released today

The Evidence Gap: David Seymour’s numbers don’t add up

David Seymour presented a series of figures as evidence ACT is delivering for New Zealand. This report examines those claims against Ministry of Education, Treasury and Reserve Bank evidence, including school lunch performance, the claimed $57,000 saving for ACT voters, and assertions around inflation and interest rates.

Image: The Waihopai satellite communications station in Marlborough. The facility sits at the intersection of intelligence sharing, international security cooperation, and New Zealand's role within the Five Eyes partnership, themes that increasingly overlap with the strategic direction outlined in the Government's $12 billion Defence Capability Plan. (Supplied / Daniel Town)
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