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LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER Labour · 37 projected seats Using the seat projection published with the latest reviewed poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 37 Labour · seat 2 of 37 Labour · seat 3 of 37 Labour · seat 4 of 37 Labour · seat 5 of 37 Labour · seat 6 of 37 Labour · seat 7 of 37 Labour · seat 8 of 37 Labour · seat 9 of 37 Labour · seat 10 of 37 Labour · seat 11 of 37 Labour · seat 12 of 37 Labour · seat 13 of 37 Labour · seat 14 of 37 Labour · seat 15 of 37 Labour · seat 16 of 37 Labour · seat 17 of 37 Labour · seat 18 of 37 Labour · seat 19 of 37 Labour · seat 20 of 37 Labour · seat 21 of 37 Labour · seat 22 of 37 Labour · seat 23 of 37 Labour · seat 24 of 37 Labour · seat 25 of 37 Labour · seat 26 of 37 Labour · seat 27 of 37 Labour · seat 28 of 37 Labour · seat 29 of 37 Labour · seat 30 of 37 Labour · seat 31 of 37 Labour · seat 32 of 37 Labour · seat 33 of 37 Labour · seat 34 of 37 Labour · seat 35 of 37 Labour · seat 36 of 37 Labour · seat 37 of 37 Green · seat 1 of 18 Green · seat 2 of 18 Green · seat 3 of 18 Green · seat 4 of 18 Green · seat 5 of 18 Green · seat 6 of 18 Green · seat 7 of 18 Green · seat 8 of 18 Green · seat 9 of 18 Green · seat 10 of 18 Green · seat 11 of 18 Green · seat 12 of 18 Green · seat 13 of 18 Green · seat 14 of 18 Green · seat 15 of 18 Green · seat 16 of 18 Green · seat 17 of 18 Green · seat 18 of 18 Te Pāti Māori · seat 1 of 2 Te Pāti Māori · seat 2 of 2 Opportunity · seat 1 of 7 Opportunity · seat 2 of 7 Opportunity · seat 3 of 7 Opportunity · seat 4 of 7 Opportunity · seat 5 of 7 Opportunity · seat 6 of 7 Opportunity · seat 7 of 7 New Zealand First · seat 1 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 2 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 3 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 4 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 5 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 6 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 7 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 8 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 9 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 10 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 11 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 12 of 13 New Zealand First · seat 13 of 13 ACT · seat 1 of 11 ACT · seat 2 of 11 ACT · seat 3 of 11 ACT · seat 4 of 11 ACT · seat 5 of 11 ACT · seat 6 of 11 ACT · seat 7 of 11 ACT · seat 8 of 11 ACT · seat 9 of 11 ACT · seat 10 of 11 ACT · seat 11 of 11 National · seat 1 of 32 National · seat 2 of 32 National · seat 3 of 32 National · seat 4 of 32 National · seat 5 of 32 National · seat 6 of 32 National · seat 7 of 32 National · seat 8 of 32 National · seat 9 of 32 National · seat 10 of 32 National · seat 11 of 32 National · seat 12 of 32 National · seat 13 of 32 National · seat 14 of 32 National · seat 15 of 32 National · seat 16 of 32 National · seat 17 of 32 National · seat 18 of 32 National · seat 19 of 32 National · seat 20 of 32 National · seat 21 of 32 National · seat 22 of 32 National · seat 23 of 32 National · seat 24 of 32 National · seat 25 of 32 National · seat 26 of 32 National · seat 27 of 32 National · seat 28 of 32 National · seat 29 of 32 National · seat 30 of 32 National · seat 31 of 32 National · seat 32 of 32
Polling seat estimateLabour has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Source-published seat projection · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: RNZ-Reid Research · Published 120-seat projection · 6 Oct 2026. Using the seat projection published with this poll. RNZ’s published projection assumes Te Pāti Māori wins at least one electorate and no party creates an overhang. National 32, Labour 37, Green 18, New Zealand First 13, ACT 11, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori 2. Majority: 61 seats.

RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

RNZ-Reid Research

National’s path to power narrows in new poll

Labour30.8%
National25.9%
Green14.8%
New Zealand First10.6%
ACT9%
Opportunity5.5%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour highest in this poll4.9-point gap

RNZ-Reid Research party vote: Labour 30.8%, National 25.9%, Green 14.8%, New Zealand First 10.6%, ACT 9.0%, Opportunity 5.5%, Te Pāti Māori 2.0%. Published 120-seat projection: Labour 37, National 32, Green 18, New Zealand First 13, ACT 11, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori…

PARTY VOTE

RNZ-Reid Research

Poll says Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote

Labour27%
National11%
Green27%
New Zealand First2%
ACT4%
Opportunity27%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour and Green and Opportunity tied for highest supportLevel on 27%

Latest published party-vote snapshot: Labour 27%, Green 27%, Opportunity 27%, National 11%, ACT 4%, New Zealand First 2%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Check the linked poll report for fieldwork dates, sample size and methodology.

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.


Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,361,881
Māori roll315,719
Total enrolled3,677,600
Enrolled90.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll315,719

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

Investigation premieres today
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Released today

The Evidence Gap: David Seymour’s numbers don’t add up

David Seymour presented a series of figures as evidence ACT is delivering for New Zealand. This report examines those claims against Ministry of Education, Treasury and Reserve Bank evidence, including school lunch performance, the claimed $57,000 saving for ACT voters, and assertions around inflation and interest rates.

Image: The Waihopai satellite communications station in Marlborough. The facility sits at the intersection of intelligence sharing, international security cooperation, and New Zealand's role within the Five Eyes partnership, themes that increasingly overlap with the strategic direction outlined in the Government's $12 billion Defence Capability Plan. (Supplied / Daniel Town)
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