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LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER National · 35 projected seats Calculated from the latest reviewed party-vote poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 33 Labour · seat 2 of 33 Labour · seat 3 of 33 Labour · seat 4 of 33 Labour · seat 5 of 33 Labour · seat 6 of 33 Labour · seat 7 of 33 Labour · seat 8 of 33 Labour · seat 9 of 33 Labour · seat 10 of 33 Labour · seat 11 of 33 Labour · seat 12 of 33 Labour · seat 13 of 33 Labour · seat 14 of 33 Labour · seat 15 of 33 Labour · seat 16 of 33 Labour · seat 17 of 33 Labour · seat 18 of 33 Labour · seat 19 of 33 Labour · seat 20 of 33 Labour · seat 21 of 33 Labour · seat 22 of 33 Labour · seat 23 of 33 Labour · seat 24 of 33 Labour · seat 25 of 33 Labour · seat 26 of 33 Labour · seat 27 of 33 Labour · seat 28 of 33 Labour · seat 29 of 33 Labour · seat 30 of 33 Labour · seat 31 of 33 Labour · seat 32 of 33 Labour · seat 33 of 33 Green · seat 1 of 18 Green · seat 2 of 18 Green · seat 3 of 18 Green · seat 4 of 18 Green · seat 5 of 18 Green · seat 6 of 18 Green · seat 7 of 18 Green · seat 8 of 18 Green · seat 9 of 18 Green · seat 10 of 18 Green · seat 11 of 18 Green · seat 12 of 18 Green · seat 13 of 18 Green · seat 14 of 18 Green · seat 15 of 18 Green · seat 16 of 18 Green · seat 17 of 18 Green · seat 18 of 18 Opportunity · seat 1 of 7 Opportunity · seat 2 of 7 Opportunity · seat 3 of 7 Opportunity · seat 4 of 7 Opportunity · seat 5 of 7 Opportunity · seat 6 of 7 Opportunity · seat 7 of 7 New Zealand First · seat 1 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 2 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 3 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 4 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 5 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 6 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 7 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 8 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 9 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 10 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 11 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 12 of 12 ACT · seat 1 of 15 ACT · seat 2 of 15 ACT · seat 3 of 15 ACT · seat 4 of 15 ACT · seat 5 of 15 ACT · seat 6 of 15 ACT · seat 7 of 15 ACT · seat 8 of 15 ACT · seat 9 of 15 ACT · seat 10 of 15 ACT · seat 11 of 15 ACT · seat 12 of 15 ACT · seat 13 of 15 ACT · seat 14 of 15 ACT · seat 15 of 15 National · seat 1 of 35 National · seat 2 of 35 National · seat 3 of 35 National · seat 4 of 35 National · seat 5 of 35 National · seat 6 of 35 National · seat 7 of 35 National · seat 8 of 35 National · seat 9 of 35 National · seat 10 of 35 National · seat 11 of 35 National · seat 12 of 35 National · seat 13 of 35 National · seat 14 of 35 National · seat 15 of 35 National · seat 16 of 35 National · seat 17 of 35 National · seat 18 of 35 National · seat 19 of 35 National · seat 20 of 35 National · seat 21 of 35 National · seat 22 of 35 National · seat 23 of 35 National · seat 24 of 35 National · seat 25 of 35 National · seat 26 of 35 National · seat 27 of 35 National · seat 28 of 35 National · seat 29 of 35 National · seat 30 of 35 National · seat 31 of 35 National · seat 32 of 35 National · seat 33 of 35 National · seat 34 of 35 National · seat 35 of 35
Polling seat estimateNational has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Modified Sainte-Laguë estimate · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: 1News Verian · 27 Oct 2026. No compatible source seat projection was available for these settings, so seats are estimated with modified Sainte-Laguë. Threshold: 5%. Qualified below threshold: Te Pāti Māori (electorate-gateway assumption). Majority: 61 seats.

RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

1News Verian party-vote poll released 27 October 2026. Fieldwork 21–25 October, 1000 eligible voters (500 mobile, 500 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. Party vote excludes the 11% who were undecided or refused to say. Seat allocation is the published 121-seat scenario, assuming Te Pāti Māori wins one electorate; a separate 125-seat scenario assumes four Te Pāti Māori electorates and one Te Tai Tokerau seat.

Labour27%
National29%
Green15%
New Zealand First10%
ACT12%
Opportunity6%
Te Pāti Māori0.1%
National highest in this poll2-point gap

27 October 1News Verian: National 29%, Labour 27%, Greens 15%, ACT 12%, New Zealand First 10%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.1%. Published 121-seat scenario: National 34, Labour 33, Greens 18, ACT 15, New Zealand First 12, Opportunity 8, Te Pāti Māori…

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

1News Verian party-vote poll released 20 October 2026. Fieldwork 15–19 October, 1003 eligible voters (500 mobile, 503 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. Percentages are rounded as published. Undecided and refused (10%) are excluded from party-vote shares.

Labour27%
National32%
Green16%
New Zealand First8%
ACT11%
Opportunity7%
Te Pāti Māori0.7%
National highest in this poll5-point gap

1News Verian party vote: National 32%, Labour 27%, Green 16%, ACT 11%, New Zealand First 8%, Opportunity 7%, Te Pāti Māori 0.7%. Verian’s published 120-seat alternative: National 38, Labour 32, Green 19, ACT 13, New Zealand First 9, Opportunity 8, Te Pāti…

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.


Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,361,881
Māori roll315,719
Total enrolled3,677,600
Enrolled90.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll315,719

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

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The Evidence Gap: David Seymour’s numbers don’t add up

David Seymour presented a series of figures as evidence ACT is delivering for New Zealand. This report examines those claims against Ministry of Education, Treasury and Reserve Bank evidence, including school lunch performance, the claimed $57,000 saving for ACT voters, and assertions around inflation and interest rates.

Image: The Waihopai satellite communications station in Marlborough. The facility sits at the intersection of intelligence sharing, international security cooperation, and New Zealand's role within the Five Eyes partnership, themes that increasingly overlap with the strategic direction outlined in the Government's $12 billion Defence Capability Plan. (Supplied / Daniel Town)
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