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LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER Labour · 35 projected seats Calculated from the latest reviewed party-vote poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 35 Labour · seat 2 of 35 Labour · seat 3 of 35 Labour · seat 4 of 35 Labour · seat 5 of 35 Labour · seat 6 of 35 Labour · seat 7 of 35 Labour · seat 8 of 35 Labour · seat 9 of 35 Labour · seat 10 of 35 Labour · seat 11 of 35 Labour · seat 12 of 35 Labour · seat 13 of 35 Labour · seat 14 of 35 Labour · seat 15 of 35 Labour · seat 16 of 35 Labour · seat 17 of 35 Labour · seat 18 of 35 Labour · seat 19 of 35 Labour · seat 20 of 35 Labour · seat 21 of 35 Labour · seat 22 of 35 Labour · seat 23 of 35 Labour · seat 24 of 35 Labour · seat 25 of 35 Labour · seat 26 of 35 Labour · seat 27 of 35 Labour · seat 28 of 35 Labour · seat 29 of 35 Labour · seat 30 of 35 Labour · seat 31 of 35 Labour · seat 32 of 35 Labour · seat 33 of 35 Labour · seat 34 of 35 Labour · seat 35 of 35 Green · seat 1 of 34 Green · seat 2 of 34 Green · seat 3 of 34 Green · seat 4 of 34 Green · seat 5 of 34 Green · seat 6 of 34 Green · seat 7 of 34 Green · seat 8 of 34 Green · seat 9 of 34 Green · seat 10 of 34 Green · seat 11 of 34 Green · seat 12 of 34 Green · seat 13 of 34 Green · seat 14 of 34 Green · seat 15 of 34 Green · seat 16 of 34 Green · seat 17 of 34 Green · seat 18 of 34 Green · seat 19 of 34 Green · seat 20 of 34 Green · seat 21 of 34 Green · seat 22 of 34 Green · seat 23 of 34 Green · seat 24 of 34 Green · seat 25 of 34 Green · seat 26 of 34 Green · seat 27 of 34 Green · seat 28 of 34 Green · seat 29 of 34 Green · seat 30 of 34 Green · seat 31 of 34 Green · seat 32 of 34 Green · seat 33 of 34 Green · seat 34 of 34 Te Pāti Māori · seat 1 of 3 Te Pāti Māori · seat 2 of 3 Te Pāti Māori · seat 3 of 3 Opportunity · seat 1 of 34 Opportunity · seat 2 of 34 Opportunity · seat 3 of 34 Opportunity · seat 4 of 34 Opportunity · seat 5 of 34 Opportunity · seat 6 of 34 Opportunity · seat 7 of 34 Opportunity · seat 8 of 34 Opportunity · seat 9 of 34 Opportunity · seat 10 of 34 Opportunity · seat 11 of 34 Opportunity · seat 12 of 34 Opportunity · seat 13 of 34 Opportunity · seat 14 of 34 Opportunity · seat 15 of 34 Opportunity · seat 16 of 34 Opportunity · seat 17 of 34 Opportunity · seat 18 of 34 Opportunity · seat 19 of 34 Opportunity · seat 20 of 34 Opportunity · seat 21 of 34 Opportunity · seat 22 of 34 Opportunity · seat 23 of 34 Opportunity · seat 24 of 34 Opportunity · seat 25 of 34 Opportunity · seat 26 of 34 Opportunity · seat 27 of 34 Opportunity · seat 28 of 34 Opportunity · seat 29 of 34 Opportunity · seat 30 of 34 Opportunity · seat 31 of 34 Opportunity · seat 32 of 34 Opportunity · seat 33 of 34 Opportunity · seat 34 of 34 National · seat 1 of 14 National · seat 2 of 14 National · seat 3 of 14 National · seat 4 of 14 National · seat 5 of 14 National · seat 6 of 14 National · seat 7 of 14 National · seat 8 of 14 National · seat 9 of 14 National · seat 10 of 14 National · seat 11 of 14 National · seat 12 of 14 National · seat 13 of 14 National · seat 14 of 14
Polling seat estimateLabour has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Modified Sainte-Laguë estimate · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: RNZ-Reid Research · 1 Oct 2026. No compatible source seat projection was available for these settings, so seats are estimated with modified Sainte-Laguë. Threshold: 5%. Qualified below threshold: Te Pāti Māori (electorate-gateway assumption). Majority: 61 seats.

RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

RNZ-Reid Research

Poll says Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote

Labour27%
National11%
Green27%
New Zealand First2%
ACT4%
Opportunity27%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour and Green and Opportunity tied for highest supportLevel on 27%

Latest published party-vote snapshot: Labour 27%, Green 27%, Opportunity 27%, National 11%, ACT 4%, New Zealand First 2%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Check the linked poll report for fieldwork dates, sample size and methodology.

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

Poll: Greens surge to best result ever as National, Labour slide further

Labour28%
National28%
Green16%
New Zealand First9%
ACT11%
Opportunity6%
Te Pāti Māori1%
Labour and National tied for highest supportLevel on 28%

1News Verian party vote: Labour 28%, National 28%, Green 16%, ACT 11%, New Zealand First 9%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 1%. Published 120-seat alternative: Labour 34, National 34, Green 19, ACT 14, New Zealand First 11, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori…

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.


Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,361,881
Māori roll315,719
Total enrolled3,677,600
Enrolled90.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll315,719

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

Investigation premieres today
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Released today

The Evidence Gap: David Seymour’s numbers don’t add up

David Seymour presented a series of figures as evidence ACT is delivering for New Zealand. This report examines those claims against Ministry of Education, Treasury and Reserve Bank evidence, including school lunch performance, the claimed $57,000 saving for ACT voters, and assertions around inflation and interest rates.

Image: The Waihopai satellite communications station in Marlborough. The facility sits at the intersection of intelligence sharing, international security cooperation, and New Zealand's role within the Five Eyes partnership, themes that increasingly overlap with the strategic direction outlined in the Government's $12 billion Defence Capability Plan. (Supplied / Daniel Town)
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