LATEST POLL · SEAT ESTIMATE

Estimated House Seats

Projected House seats from the latest reviewed party-vote poll. This is a polling estimate, not an official election result.

PROJECTED LEADER National · 35 projected seats Calculated from the latest reviewed party-vote poll.
Labour · seat 1 of 33 Labour · seat 2 of 33 Labour · seat 3 of 33 Labour · seat 4 of 33 Labour · seat 5 of 33 Labour · seat 6 of 33 Labour · seat 7 of 33 Labour · seat 8 of 33 Labour · seat 9 of 33 Labour · seat 10 of 33 Labour · seat 11 of 33 Labour · seat 12 of 33 Labour · seat 13 of 33 Labour · seat 14 of 33 Labour · seat 15 of 33 Labour · seat 16 of 33 Labour · seat 17 of 33 Labour · seat 18 of 33 Labour · seat 19 of 33 Labour · seat 20 of 33 Labour · seat 21 of 33 Labour · seat 22 of 33 Labour · seat 23 of 33 Labour · seat 24 of 33 Labour · seat 25 of 33 Labour · seat 26 of 33 Labour · seat 27 of 33 Labour · seat 28 of 33 Labour · seat 29 of 33 Labour · seat 30 of 33 Labour · seat 31 of 33 Labour · seat 32 of 33 Labour · seat 33 of 33 Green · seat 1 of 18 Green · seat 2 of 18 Green · seat 3 of 18 Green · seat 4 of 18 Green · seat 5 of 18 Green · seat 6 of 18 Green · seat 7 of 18 Green · seat 8 of 18 Green · seat 9 of 18 Green · seat 10 of 18 Green · seat 11 of 18 Green · seat 12 of 18 Green · seat 13 of 18 Green · seat 14 of 18 Green · seat 15 of 18 Green · seat 16 of 18 Green · seat 17 of 18 Green · seat 18 of 18 Opportunity · seat 1 of 7 Opportunity · seat 2 of 7 Opportunity · seat 3 of 7 Opportunity · seat 4 of 7 Opportunity · seat 5 of 7 Opportunity · seat 6 of 7 Opportunity · seat 7 of 7 New Zealand First · seat 1 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 2 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 3 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 4 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 5 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 6 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 7 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 8 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 9 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 10 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 11 of 12 New Zealand First · seat 12 of 12 ACT · seat 1 of 15 ACT · seat 2 of 15 ACT · seat 3 of 15 ACT · seat 4 of 15 ACT · seat 5 of 15 ACT · seat 6 of 15 ACT · seat 7 of 15 ACT · seat 8 of 15 ACT · seat 9 of 15 ACT · seat 10 of 15 ACT · seat 11 of 15 ACT · seat 12 of 15 ACT · seat 13 of 15 ACT · seat 14 of 15 ACT · seat 15 of 15 National · seat 1 of 35 National · seat 2 of 35 National · seat 3 of 35 National · seat 4 of 35 National · seat 5 of 35 National · seat 6 of 35 National · seat 7 of 35 National · seat 8 of 35 National · seat 9 of 35 National · seat 10 of 35 National · seat 11 of 35 National · seat 12 of 35 National · seat 13 of 35 National · seat 14 of 35 National · seat 15 of 35 National · seat 16 of 35 National · seat 17 of 35 National · seat 18 of 35 National · seat 19 of 35 National · seat 20 of 35 National · seat 21 of 35 National · seat 22 of 35 National · seat 23 of 35 National · seat 24 of 35 National · seat 25 of 35 National · seat 26 of 35 National · seat 27 of 35 National · seat 28 of 35 National · seat 29 of 35 National · seat 30 of 35 National · seat 31 of 35 National · seat 32 of 35 National · seat 33 of 35 National · seat 34 of 35 National · seat 35 of 35
Polling seat estimateNational has the highest projected seat total. Select a party or seat for its breakdown.Modified Sainte-Laguë estimate · majority mark: 61 seats
Source: 1News Verian · 27 Oct 2026. No compatible source seat projection was available for these settings, so seats are estimated with modified Sainte-Laguë. Threshold: 5%. Qualified below threshold: Te Pāti Māori (electorate-gateway assumption). Majority: 61 seats.
LATEST 1NEWS VERIAN

Preferred Prime Minister

Latest preferred Prime Minister result, with a profile snapshot of each leading political figure.

27 OCT 2026
PUBLISHED POLLPreferred-PM figures from 1News Verian · 27 Oct 2026.
24%preferred PM

Christopher Luxon

Prime Minister · National leader

1News Verian · 27 Oct
18%

Chris Hipkins

Leader of the Opposition · Labour leader

1News Verian · 27 Oct
7%

Winston Peters

New Zealand First leader

1News Verian · 27 Oct
7%

Chlöe Swarbrick

Green Party co-leader

1News Verian · 27 Oct
6%

David Seymour

Deputy Prime Minister · ACT leader

1News Verian · 27 Oct
HISTORICAL TREND

Preferred PM polling, 2024–2026

LuxonHipkinsPetersSwarbrickSeymour
0%10%20%30%40%50%Feb 2024Jun 2024Oct 2024Feb 2025May 2025Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 202612 Aug7 Sep28 Sep6 Oct13 Oct27 Oct24%18%7%7%6%

The chart combines the historical 1News-Verian series with subsequent source-verified preferred-PM results, including the 28 September 2026 Verian poll. Pollsters use different methods, so cross-pollster changes should be read as snapshots rather than a single continuous series.

1News Verian. Preferred-PM figures from 1News Verian · 27 Oct 2026. Historical chart identifies the latest mixed-pollster points and expands automatically to keep every percentage visible. Portrait image credits are marked with an asterisk.
WAITING

Official results

Waiting for Electoral Commission counting data. Party lines stay grey until the count starts.

Labour—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
National—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Green—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
New Zealand First—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
ACT—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Opportunity—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Te Pāti Māori—
Awaiting countAwaiting seats
Election26 · NEW ZEALAND

Live regional vote map

Click a region to see current enrolment, then live counted votes as results arrive.

3,677,600 enrolled nationally90.8% estimated enrolment315,719 Māori roll3,677,578 local-council roll totalStats 30 September 2026
Click a region Regions tint to the current leading party; orange pulse means the top two are within 2.5 pointsVotes Official electorate party-vote totals are grouped by thisquality regionStatus Live
NorthlandAucklandWaikatoBay of PlentyGisborneHawke’s BayTaranakiManawatū-WhanganuiWellingtonNelson-TasmanWest CoastMarlboroughCanterburyOtagoSouthland
Click a region · Drag to move · Use controls to zoom
REGIONAL COVERAGE

Wellington

434,777 people are enrolled in this region across 7 general electorates.

Shown until official live results are available. Electoral Commission monthly enrolment statistics · 30 September 2026.

Before counting, this panel shows regional enrolment. It switches automatically to live regional results as official figures arrive.

Vote source: Electoral Commission. Enrolment source: Electoral Commission monthly enrolment statistics. Regional vote groupings and map presentation are thisquality aggregations. The Electoral Commission results service has not returned result data yet.
RECENT POLLINGHistorical opinion polls · automatic source scan every 15 minutes

Recent polls

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

1News Verian party-vote poll released 27 October 2026. Fieldwork 21–25 October, 1000 eligible voters (500 mobile, 500 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. Party vote excludes the 11% who were undecided or refused to say. Seat allocation is the published 121-seat scenario, assuming Te Pāti Māori wins one electorate; a separate 125-seat scenario assumes four Te Pāti Māori electorates and one Te Tai Tokerau seat.

Labour27%
National29%
Green15%
New Zealand First10%
ACT12%
Opportunity6%
Te Pāti Māori0.1%
National highest in this poll2-point gap

27 October 1News Verian: National 29%, Labour 27%, Greens 15%, ACT 12%, New Zealand First 10%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.1%. Published 121-seat scenario: National 34, Labour 33, Greens 18, ACT 15, New Zealand First 12, Opportunity 8, Te Pāti Māori…

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

1News Verian party-vote poll released 20 October 2026. Fieldwork 15–19 October, 1003 eligible voters (500 mobile, 503 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. Percentages are rounded as published. Undecided and refused (10%) are excluded from party-vote shares.

Labour27%
National32%
Green16%
New Zealand First8%
ACT11%
Opportunity7%
Te Pāti Māori0.7%
National highest in this poll5-point gap

1News Verian party vote: National 32%, Labour 27%, Green 16%, ACT 11%, New Zealand First 8%, Opportunity 7%, Te Pāti Māori 0.7%. Verian’s published 120-seat alternative: National 38, Labour 32, Green 19, ACT 13, New Zealand First 9, Opportunity 8, Te Pāti…

PARTY VOTE

The Post/Freshwater Strategy

The Post/Freshwater Strategy nationwide party-vote poll released 20 October 2026. Fieldwork 9–19 October, 1458 respondents, published maximum margin of error ±3 percentage points. This is a separate poll from the 1News Verian release on the same date.

Labour28.7%
National27.6%
Green14.3%
New Zealand First11.8%
ACT9%
Opportunity5.4%
Te Pāti Māori2%
Labour highest in this poll1.1-point gap

The Post/Freshwater Strategy party vote: Labour 28.7%, National 27.6%, Green 14.3%, New Zealand First 11.8%, ACT 9.0%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 2.0%. Fieldwork 9–19 October among 1458 respondents.

PARTY VOTE

NZ Herald/Anacta

Anacta (formerly Talbot Mills) party-vote poll reported by NZ Herald on 16 October 2026. Fieldwork 6–10 October, 1352 respondents, published maximum margin of error ±2.7 percentage points. Figures for minor parties may differ by reporting/rounding.

Labour29%
National28%
Green15%
New Zealand First10%
ACT9%
Opportunity5.4%
Te Pāti Māori1.9%
Labour highest in this poll1-point gap

Anacta party vote reported by the NZ Herald: Labour 29%, National 28%, Green 15%, New Zealand First 10%, ACT 9%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 1.9% (reported decimal figures).

PARTY VOTE

1News Verian

1News Verian party-vote poll released 13 October 2026. Fieldwork 8–12 October, 1007 eligible voters (501 mobile, 506 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. Decided party-vote respondents only.

Labour28%
National28%
Green15%
New Zealand First10%
ACT10%
Opportunity8%
Te Pāti Māori0.4%
Labour and National tied for highest supportLevel on 28%

1News Verian party vote: National 28%, Labour 28%, Green 15%, ACT 10%, New Zealand First 10%, Opportunity 8%, Te Pāti Māori 0.4%. Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins were tied on 20% each as preferred prime minister.

PARTY VOTE

Taxpayers' Union-Curia

Curia survey for the Taxpayers’ Union released 8 October 2026. Fieldwork 1–5 October, 1000 eligible/likely voters (700 telephone, 300 online), maximum sampling error ±3.1 percentage points. The published party-vote results are among decided voters; 2.5% were undecided.

Labour28.2%
National28.5%
Green13.3%
New Zealand First12%
ACT9.2%
Opportunity4.8%
Te Pāti Māori1.4%
National highest in this poll0.3-point gap

Taxpayers’ Union-Curia party vote: National 28.5%, Labour 28.2%, Green 13.3%, New Zealand First 12%, ACT 9.2%, Opportunity 4.8%, Te Pāti Māori 1.4%. Published projection: National 37, Labour 36, Green 17, New Zealand First 16, ACT 12, Te Pāti Māori 2.

Latest polling shows recent published snapshots first. Party rows use a fixed display order for consistency, while the actual highest figure is explicitly marked in each card. Historical polling remains in the separate history card; compare fieldwork dates and methodology before drawing conclusions.

Enrolment snapshot

General-electorate and Māori-electorate enrolment data, refreshed from the Electoral Commission’s monthly statistics.

General electorate roll

Estimated eligible4,051,640
General roll3,361,881
Māori roll315,719
Total enrolled3,677,600
Enrolled90.8%

Māori electorates

Māori roll315,719

People of Māori descent can choose the general roll or Māori roll when eligible to change roll type. This panel shows the Electoral Commission’s Māori-electorate enrolment total.

Video: Election26

*thisquality is an independent news and information service operated by Quiet Pact Network Limited and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or acting on behalf of the New Zealand Government, the Electoral Commission, Parliament, any political party, candidate, campaign, lobby group or other electoral authority. Election26 coverage, including results, electorate information, polling, candidate information, maps, timelines, alerts and related material, is compiled from official statements, publicly available data and other verified reporting for general information only. Information may be delayed, incomplete, corrected or changed without notice and should not be relied upon as official electoral, legal or voting advice. Election results, vote counts, electorate boundaries, candidate details and other election information may change as official counting, recounts, declarations or corrections occur. Maps and graphics are illustrative and must not be treated as authoritative representations of electorate boundaries, polling places, voting eligibility or official results. Alerts and live updates are provided as a convenience and are not guaranteed to be immediate, continuous, complete or successfully delivered. Readers should check the latest official information from the New Zealand Electoral Commission and other relevant authorities before making decisions about enrolment, voting, eligibility, polling places, election dates, deadlines or other electoral matters. Nothing published by thisquality should be interpreted as an endorsement of, opposition to, or instruction to vote for any political party, candidate or electoral option. Although reasonable care is taken in preparing Election26 coverage, Quiet Pact Network Limited does not guarantee that any content is complete, accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose and, to the fullest extent permitted by New Zealand law, excludes liability for any loss, damage, cost or consequence arising from access to or reliance on this page. Nothing in this disclaimer excludes or limits any right, remedy or liability that cannot lawfully be excluded or limited.

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