Christopher Luxon’s India trade deal looks like a deal with the devil

Video: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Opposition leader Chris Hipkins join Indian Independence Day celebrations in South Auckland. (File. / Facebook)

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has sold New Zealand’s Free Trade Agreement with India as an economic breakthrough, promising exporters deeper market access and stronger long-term growth. On paper, it is easy to see the attraction. India’s economy is expanding fast, its middle class is growing rapidly, and access to that market offers real commercial opportunity for New Zealand exporters. But every deal that looks irresistible on the surface deserves scrutiny underneath, because that is often where the real cost is hidden.

That is why this agreement feels like a deal with the devil. Not because India is the problem, but because the trade-offs built into the agreement could leave New Zealand paying a massive price.

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Image: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during talks that laid the groundwork for the New Zealand-India free trade agreement, now being hailed by Luxon as a once-in-a-generation economic deal. (File. / New Zealand National Party / Christopher Luxon)

Buried inside the agreement is New Zealand’s commitment to provide 5,000 Temporary Employment Entry visas for Indian workers, with 4,400 tied to recognised skill shortages and another 600 specifically for occupations such as Indian chefs and yoga teachers . That may sound manageable in policy terms, but New Zealand is already under visible strain.

Housing remains unaffordable for thousands, public hospitals are stretched beyond capacity and infrastructure is struggling to keep pace with the population already here. Adding new workforce pathways without first fixing those pressures risks intensifying a system already showing cracks.

Image: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon pictured during his Hamilton visit, where he met with business leaders, community groups and members of the Sikh community while promoting the Government’s new free trade agreement with India. (File. / New Zealand National Party / Christopher Luxon)

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The agreement raises the threshold for Indian investors in New Zealand from $100 million to $200 million before consent is required for significant business asset investments. That shift may be framed as making New Zealand more attractive for investment, but it also reduces scrutiny over who is buying into major assets and how much control foreign capital can gain inside key sectors of the economy. In practical terms, it weakens one of the few checks New Zealand has over strategic ownership.

That is where the “deal with the devil” metaphor starts to land. The devil in politics is the compromise that feels profitable in the moment but leaves consequences later. The promise of this deal is growth, but the price could be deeper pressure on housing, infrastructure and national economic control. That is what hell looks like in economic terms.

Image: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi address media in India as the New Zealand-India free trade agreement moves from negotiation to a troubling reality. (File. / New Zealand National Party / Christopher Luxon)

Luxon is betting this agreement will deliver prosperity, and he may well be right. Trade matters, and New Zealand cannot afford to isolate itself from major global markets.

But if the price of access is more pressure on public services and less oversight over strategic investment, our country may one day look back and realise this was never a simple trade deal.

It was a bargain where the rewards came first, the costs came later, and the hardest part was discovering there was no easy way out.

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