The Evidence Gap: David Seymour’s numbers don’t add up

Video: ACT leader David Seymour used his 2026 State of the Nation speech to argue his party was delivering measurable gains across government, with claims now tested against official evidence. (Supplied / thisquality / Quiet Pact Network)

David Seymour presented a series of figures as evidence ACT is delivering for New Zealand. This investigation examines those claims against Ministry of Education, Treasury, Reserve Bank and legislative evidence, including school lunch performance, the claimed $57,000 saving for ACT voters, lower inflation and interest rates, and assertions about property rights.

ACT leader Seymour used his 2026 State of the Nation speech to make a sweeping case that his party had delivered measurable results across government, pointing to hundreds of millions of dollars in savings, faster public services, falling crime and improved economic conditions.

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The numbers are real in several cases. The harder question is whether they prove what Seymour says they prove.

An examination of official government data shows a recurring gap between the statistic presented and the broader conclusion attached to it. Savings are presented as evidence that service quality has been maintained, faster processing is treated as evidence of better outcomes, and national economic movements are attributed to ACT without evidence establishing how much of the change was caused by the party’s policies.

Image: ACT leader David Seymour speaks in Christchurch, where he cited school lunch savings and wider government performance as evidence the party was “fixing what matters”, although some of the figures do not clearly establish improved outcomes or ACT’s direct responsibility. (File / Supplied / ACT Party)

Seymour told his Christchurch audience ACT had spent two years proving it was capable of “fixing what matters”, citing savings and improved government performance across multiple portfolios.

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Some of the figures show genuine improvements. The evidence becomes less clear when those statistics are used to prove outcomes or ACT’s direct responsibility for them.

Seymour said more than $300 million had been saved from school lunches while maintaining the same quality. Ministry of Education monitoring shows savings were achieved, but its programme rating fell from 3.87 in 2025 to 3.76 in Term 1 of 2026, while untouched meals returned to suppliers increased from 10.39 percent to 15.06 percent.

He also claimed people who gave ACT their party vote at the last election had effectively saved taxpayers $57,000 each.

That figure comes from dividing $12.8 billion in projected fiscal headroom linked to pay equity changes by ACT’s vote. Treasury describes the money as savings across the forecast period, much of which was used to fund future Budget allowances. It does not represent $57,000 directly saved for each ACT voter.

Other claims follow a similar pattern.

Faster medicine approvals, court processing, overseas investment decisions and passport services show government processes moving more quickly, but processing speed does not by itself establish better health, justice or economic outcomes.

Falling crime and improved school attendance are stronger outcome measures, but Seymour’s speech does not provide evidence showing how much of those national trends were directly caused by ACT policies.

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The same issue applies to inflation and interest rates. Government policy can influence economic conditions, but the Official Cash Rate is set independently by the Reserve Bank, making it difficult for ACT to claim it directly delivered lower interest rates without further analysis.

Image: ACT leader David Seymour delivers his 2026 State of the Nation speech at Rydges Latimer in Christchurch on February 15, 2026. (Supplied / ACT Party)

Seymour’s claim that New Zealand and Canada lacked property rights in law also faces problems. Both countries already have legal protections covering property, although Seymour can argue those protections should be strengthened.

The investigation found a consistent evidence gap running throughout the speech.

Some of the numbers are accurate and some show genuine improvement, but outputs are repeatedly presented as outcomes, national trends as ACT achievements and forecast savings as money directly saved for voters.

A statistic can be correct while the political conclusion attached to it remains unproven.

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